Thursday, May 15, 2008

Post Hoc Ergo Propter Hoc

"Post hoc ergo propter hoc," is a Latin phrase that translates to "after this, therefore because of this". It's a logical fallacy where a person assumes that one event causes another just because it happened in that order, and they're often wrong. For example, if you stepped on a fissure in the sidewalk and then your mother had a spinal injury, you might believe that "step on a crack, break your mother's back". It's lazy thinking, and I hope Hank Steinbrenner is smart enough to avoid it. The fact that the Yankees won on the night after he ranted about them having to play "smarter and harder" doesn't mean that he's the reason they won. Just as Mike Mussina didn't start pitching lefthanded, Mariano Rivera didn't suddenly realize he hadn't been trying the night before, and Robinson Cano didn't think his way into four hits.

All that happened last night was the same thing that happened the night before. The Yankee hitters stranded lots of men on base, and the Yankee pitchers did the same. The only difference was that this time the hitters managed to plate one extra run. In the great scheme of things, that's not a lot, and anyone who thinks that last night was evidence of real improvement is fooling themselves.

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