Feeling the Burn(ett)

After an oh so brief respite, the Yankees returned to their offensive futility this afternoon as they were thoroughly dominated by AJ Burnett. For many people, though, this performance was more than just another bad day for the Yankee offense; it was also a look at a potential trade target.

Obviously, what we saw out of Burnett was good, even taking into account the slumping ways of the team he was facing. To me, it confirmed what I had suspected, that Burnett is pitching better than his 4.96 ERA would have you think. Taking a closer look at his stats this year, you see that he's still striking guys out (in fact, he leads the league), and isn't allowing any more walks and home runs than he has in the past. The only big difference has been that more of the balls that have been put into play against him are going for hits rather than walks. At .337, his batting average on balls in play (or BABIP) this season is far higher than it has been over his career. That suggests that he's either been a victim of bad luck or bad defense (or both). This means that his perceived value might be less than his actual value, and the Yankees could get themselves a bargain by taking advantage of that.

That said, there's another factor to consider with Burnett: his contract. Burnett is signed for two more years and is owed $24 million. This would be a good deal for a pitcher with his talent, except that Burnett has only managed to remain healthy for only three out of his eight full seasons in the majors, so it's a safe bet that he'll have problems in the future. When you consider the plethora of young pitching talent the Yankees have in their system and the excellent pool of free agent pitchers available after this season, it's easy to see how Burnett could easily turn from an asset to an albatross in a few months.