Where's the Heat?

On the surface, last night probably seemed much like the night before, as one of the Yankees young starters dominated the Tigers while their hitters backed them up with a bunch of runs scored in one big inning. For most, it seems like the only things to worry about were the troubles of the Yankee bullpen, particularly in the case of Mariano Rivera, who gave up a big home run for the second straight time. I, however, find myself more worried by Joba Chamberlain.

To be sure, this was a great start for Joba. He dominated the Tigers all night, only running into serious trouble in the third inning. Looking past the results, however, I see the same velocity problem that I've seen all season. Last night, Chamberlain's fastball was sitting in the 92-94mph range, breaking 95mph only a couple of times all night. While that certainly was enough to put the Tigers away, it's still a significant change from last season, where he would average 94-96mph and occasionally reach back and unleash that 99mph heater we all love.

So what's behind this velocity drop? My best guess is that Chamberlain is still building up arm strength. The numbers I referenced before were what he did as a starter, but by the time he made his first start last season he had already spent two months throwing in the bullpen. It's entirely possible that when June comes around this season we'll see his velocity return.

If not, however, that doesn't mean we should be calling for his return to the bullpen. As he showed last night, Joba can be a dominant starter without a triple-digit fastball, and as long as that's the case his place is in the Yankees rotation.

As for Mariano, as I've said before, it'll take a few more rough outings to get me to start worrying about him.