Don't Give Up on Kennedy

A lot of people are down on Ian Kennedy right now, and I can understand why. His performance yesterday was awful, and his comments after the game were pretty bad as well. However, it's way too early to write him off as a failed prospect. The problem is that people look at Kennedy as a guy who has failed as a major leaguer, and not as a guy who just isn't ready yet.

The fault, of course, lies with the Yankees, who pushed Kennedy into the majors far too quickly. Kennedy was drafted in 2006, and didn't sign until the middle of August. Over the next year he rocketed up the minors, pitching in five different leagues before making his major league debut on September 1, 2007. Even though he performed well, it's now obvious that he missed out on the education the minor leagues can provide.

Unfortunately, the minor league season ends in a few weeks, but the Yankees need to take advantage what time is left and send Kennedy back to Scranton. Once there, he's got to work on learning how to be a major league starter, which is a different task than just getting guys out. For example, he might face a batter who he could get out with a curveball out of the strikezone, but if that's a pitch a major league hitter wouldn't swing at, then he shouldn't throw it. Instead, he needs to try and make the kinds of pitches that would get a major leaguer out. Doing so might lead to some mistakes and some extra runs, but those are the kinds of learning experiences a player is supposed to get in the minor leagues, and until Kennedy gets them, you can't just write him off.

The Silver Lining

I hate to say I told you so, but after his strong start against the Orioles last week, I wrote that Ian Kennedy couldn't repeat that success if he continued to rely heavily on his fastball and didn't throw more breaking balls for strikes. On Thursday, Kennedy started the game by throwing thirteen fastballs and just four breaking balls to the first five batters, and none of those breaking balls were in the strike zone. There's one event in baseball where a hitter doesn't have to worry about breaking balls and can wait for a 90mph fastball to hit. It's called the home run derby, and the Orioles proceeded to hold their own as Kevin Millar and Ramon Hernandez knocked back to back homers to give Baltimore a three run lead.

Thankfully, those two home runs seemed to help Kennedy realize that, as he proceeded to throw fifteen breaking balls in his next thirty-one pitches, seven of which seemed to be in the strike zone. By keeping the hitters off balance, he proceeded to cruise through the rest of the second inning, as well as the third, with the only damage coming thanks to errors and passed balls.

Of course in keeping with this season's theme, Kennedy followed this success with an injury, but at least he's given us reason to be optimistic about his return.

The cloud in the silver lining

Regular readers of this blog know that I'm generally an upbeat person, often trying to find hopeful signs in even the worst losses. So, you might expect that I'd have found Ian Kennedy's performance last night to be cause for celebration. After all, it was Kennedy's best start by far this season, and one of only two which didn't result in a Yankee loss. Surprisingly, however, what I saw last night didn't seem like good pitching from Ian Kennedy, but bad hitting from the Baltimore Orioles.

Kennedy started the game by throwing twelve straight fastballs to retire the first three batters, and continued to rely heavily on that pitch for the rest of the game, throwing it around 80% of the time. This was fine last night, as the Orioles weren't able to hit that fastball particularly well, but it's not a strategy that I think will work for him very often. Kennedy simply doesn't have the kind of overpowering fastball that you need to be able to pull that off, and he needs to use his other pitches to keep hitters off balance. Unfortunately, none of those other pitches seemed to be working for him last night, and therein lies the problem. Of the few off speed pitches that he threw, less than half were strikes. Unless Kennedy can improve upon that, I think we're going to see hitters simply ignore his off speed pitches and wait for a fastball they can hit hard, much as they've done before.

Minor League Monday 4/28/08

I somehow managed to miss Minor League Monday last week, so these awards will cover two weeks.

Pitcher of the Fortnight - Daniel McCutchen, RHP, Trenton Thunder (Double A):

When a pitcher faces a team two times in a row, he often finds himself at a disadvantage, since hitters have a better idea of what to expect. On Friday, however, the New Britain Rock Cats had no idea what to expect, as McCutchen struck out twelve of them over seven one-hit innings in Trenton just five days after he held them to two runs over seven innings in New Britain. As I've mentioned many times before, the Yankee farm system is packed with righthanded pitching prospects, so it can be hard for someone like McCutchen to stand out since he doesn't have the kind of high ceiling of a Dellin Betances or Andrew Brackman. However, McCutchen's polish and excellent curveball could make him a very useful Jon Lieber kind of fifth starter.

Hitter of the Fortnight - Matt Carson, OF, Trenton Thunder (Double A):

The current owner of a 15 game hitting streak, Carson has been absolutely pounding the ball in a stadium that's very pitcher friendly. Over the past two weeks he's hit .407/.458/.833, including four home runs. Still, as good as he's been, it'd be a stretch to call him a prospect. Carson is 26 years old, and it's only after a 186 mediocre games at Double A over the past few years that he's managed to find this success.

A few other notes:

• Darrell Rasner is making a strong argument for taking Ian Kennedy's place in the rotation. In five starts, Rasner has walked more than one batter only once, on April 16th, and has yet to allow more than one earned run in a game.



• Austin Romine, who has been alternating with Jesus Montero between catcher and DH in Charleston, had just started to get into a groove when he strained his groin last week. There's no word on the severity or how long it'll be till he comes back. It's turning out to be a really bad spring for Yankee catchers.

Hijinks

It's been a very strange couple of days for the Yankees, and even stranger ones for Yankee fans as the team made some very confusing moves in response to injuries and the weather. Let's see if we can straighten this out.

First, Derek Jeter is out till Friday at the earliest, but will almost certainly stay off the DL. Also avoiding the DL is Jorge Posada, as an MRI revealed no structural damage in his shoulder. What's unclear, however, is how long it'll be until he can actually play. That's all pretty straightforward. What's bizarre is what the Yankees did next.

With Posada and Jeter unavailable, it was obvious that some kind of move needed to be made to get some help. They elected to call up Alberto Gonzalez to start at shortstop tonight, which is not the move that I would make. Wilson Betemit may have looked shaky in yesterday's game, but I think the greater need is for a catcher to back up Jose Molina. Right now, if Molina were to get injured in a game, he would be replaced by Morgan Ensberg, who, as far as I can tell, hasn't played the position in this millenium. However, that's just a questionable move. The bizarre move came when it was time to make room for Gonzalez on the roster.

First, Joe Girardi told reporters that Ensberg had injured his ankle and implied that he was headign to the DL. This, apparently, was news to Ensberg, who told Tyler Kepner of the Times that he was fine. Finally, after tonight's batting practice was over, the team revealed that Shelley Duncan had been sent down to Triple A.

So that's all there is for the injuries, but the wackiness didn't end there. About fifteen minutes before gametime, the Yankees stopped Ian Kennedy from warming up and announced that he had been scratched from his start, without providing any reason. Thankfully, it turns out that there was no injury. What happened was that Joe Girardi, perhaps because of the advice of team meteorologist Al Roker (no, seriously, he really is on staff), felt that the game would be postponed or delayed due to rain and didn't want to waste a start by Kennedy. It probably would've been a good decision, except that tonight's umpires are apparently a little crazy, as we're now in the sixth inning, even though it's been pouring all night and the field is an absolute mess. Meanwhile, Kennedy has finally taken the mound after Brian Bruney, Billy Traber and Kyle Farnsworth combined for four good innings, and one not so good one from Farnsworth.

Spring Training - The Starters

40-Man Roster Players:

• Andrew Brackman (injured)
• Joba Chamberlain
• Phil Hughes
• Kei Igawa
• Jeff Karstens
• Ian Kennedy
• Jeffrey Marquez
• Mike Mussina
• Carl Pavano (injured)
• Andy Pettitte
• Humberto Sanchez (injured)
• Chien-Ming Wang

Non-Roster Invitees:

• Alan Horne
• Daniel McCutchen
• Darrell Rasner

As I said yesterday, there's a lot more going on with the pitchers than the catchers this spring. While the majority of the intrigue will be in the bullpen, there's still some questions to be answered in the rotation. The top three spots are, of course, set with Wang, Pettitte and Hughes. The fourth spot is ostensibly Mussina's, and he won't lose the job in Tampa, but considering how awful he was in the second half of the season, he'll be on a short leash come April.

The big question for now, however, is whether Joba Chamberlain is in the rotation or the bullpen. Hank Steinbrenner has said unequivically that Chamberlain is a starter, and I've got no doubt that that's where his future lies, but I don't think he's ready for a full season as a major league starter. Last year he threw 116 innings, most of them in the minor leagues, where he never had to struggle. If he starts all season for the Yankees, his workload will increase by at least half. That would be a terrible risk to take on the health of a very valuable player. Both Chamberlain and the Yankees would be much better served if he started the year in the bullpen and moved into the rotation a few months into the season. In the meantime, Ian Kennedy can take the final spot in the rotation.

While Chamberlain and Kennedy seem to be the only serious candidates for the fifth starter's job, that doesn't mean you should ignore the rest of the starters. If the Yankees learned anything in 2007, it's that there's no telling how many pitchers you're going to end up needing. Jeff Karstens figures to be the first one called upon in an emergency, but strong spring performances by Kei Igawa (who the Yankees have invested a lot of money in) or prospects Alan Horne and Jeffrey Marquez could put one of them at the front of the line.

Of course no matter who ends up taking the mound, I'm certain Carl Pavano will step up and pull his hamstring.

Off to see the Wizard

You might think that since I've advocated resting players to get ready for the playoffs, I'd be ready to slam Joe Torre for breaking the Joba Rules on Sunday. If so, you'd be wrong. The Joba Rules were certainly a great idea, minimizing the risk to a very valuable arm as Chamberlain adjusted to a bullpen role, and pitched more than 100 innings for the first time since his sophomore season at Nebraska. However, anyone who thought that the Yankees' were going to keep to those rules in the playoffs was crazy. So, it makes sense to get Joba ready for what might be a slightly heavier workload in the postseason. Its especially important for him to be able to warm up and be available to come in mid-inning. With his ability to get strikeouts, he is definitely the man you want on the mound in a tight game with runners on base.

In more entertaining news, after yesterday's game the Yankees left for their final road trip of the season, which meant it was time for some rookie hazing. As in years past, the veterans stole the rooks' clothes from their lockers and replaced them with new outfits. Last year, it was George Steinbrenner turtlenecks and blazers. The year before it was cheerleading uniforms. This year, with a dozen rookies, the Yankees' were able to put on their own production of the Wizard of Oz. Here's Ian Kennedy, Joba Chamberlain, Shelley Duncan and Phil Hughes as Dorothy, the Cowardly Lion, the Scarecrow and the Tin Man:



Additionally, the Daily News has shots of Edwar Ramirez as the Wicked Witch of the West, Kei Igawa a flying monkey, Chase Wright as the Good Witch of the East, and Ross Ohlendorf as a palace guard. Plus, a guy by the name of Rob managed to get pictures of Igawa's translator Yumi Watanabe as a talking tree, and strength coach Dana Cavalea as the Mayor of Emerald City. Sadly, I wasn't able to find pictures of Munchkins Matt DeSalvo and Alberto Gonzalez, or of flying monkey Tyler Clippard and palace guard Bronson Sardinha. Hopefully I'll be able to catch them once they start their run on Broadway.

A Belated Minor League Monday 9/12

I've been experiencing some technical difficulties, so I'm afraid this week's Minor League Monday has become Minor League Wednesday.

While the Yankees spent the last week marching towards the playoffs, their minor league affiliates were mostly exiting the playoffs. To start, the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Yankees were knocked out in the first round of the International League playoffs, winning only one game of their five game series with the Richmond Braves. Part of this can be blamed on the fact that the team recently lost its best hitter, Shelly Duncan, and three of its best pitchers, and three of its best pitchers, Ian Kennedy, Chris Britton and Brian Bruney. That's life in the minor leagues, I suppose. They did keep it close, losing by one run in two of their losses and by two in the third.

Also knocked out of the first round were the Staten Island Yankees, losing the first two games of their three game set with the Brooklyn Cyclones. In the first game, the defending champions fell victim to shoddy defense when first baseman Taylor Holiday who bounced a throw to the plate, allowing the winning runs to score. In the second game, they were simply outmatched by the Cyclones' pitching, as starter Dylan Owen combined with three relievers for a 15 strikeout performance, allowing only one run.

The lone spot of good news came out of Trenton, as the Thunder beat the Portland Sea Dogs three games to one to get themselves into the Eastern League Championship Series. The Thunder won the same way they've been winning all year, with dominant pitching. The pitching staff allowed only three runs in their three wins, capped by a shutout in the final game by starter Jeff Marquez and relievers Eric Wordekemper and Justin Pope.

The Thunder have also been helped out by the late season promotion of hot hitting center fielder Austin Jackson, who I wrote about last week. Jackson knocked in three runs, including the game winner, in the opening game of the championship series against the Akron Aeros last night. I'll be sure to recap the entire series on Monday.

Thank God That's Over

We may very well have seen Mike Mussina's last start of 2007, and possibly the last appearance of Sean Henn in a major league game. There's no word yet on exactly what kind of roster shuffling is going to happen, but here are my thoughts on the matter:

Obviously Henn will have to be sent down(or sent home, since his wife is about to have a baby). There's really no point in having a lefty in the pen that can't get lefties out. Just ask Mike Myers. The real question is, who is your new lefty? The system is dreadfully thin on lefthanded pitching, with the only candidate in Triple-A being Kei Igawa. Its enough to make me wonder how Ron Guidry's arm is feeling. In all seriousness, the team might be best off simply using righties like Jose Vizcaino and Joba Chamberlain, who've been just as effective against lefties as righties.

One guy who should never be sent up against a lefthanded hitter, though, is Edwar Ramirez. Its a pretty small sample size, but his splits are pretty astounding. Against righties, he's thrown a very solid seven innings allowing only five hits while walking two and striking out nine. Against lefties, he's struck out an impressive seven in just three and two thirds innings, but has walked six and given up four hits, two of which were homeruns. Granted, last night's homerun came from a righty, Placido Polanco, but that was the first time he's given one up to a righty, and has been generally effective enough against them to have some value in the pen.

One guy who has been able to get lefties out in his career is Mussina, who will either have to go to the bullpen or the DL. Considering that no one's got any idea what's wrong with him, there's really no reason to believe he'd be any better in relief, so the DL would be preferable. Neither he nor the Yankees have said that there's anything physically wrong with him, but at 38 years old there's got to be something that needs resting. The candidates for replacing him in the rotation consist of guys who have either been bad in the majors (Igawa, Jeff Karstens and Matt DeSalvo), or who have never been there (Ian Kennedy and Steven White).

Fortunately, the schedule is on our side. With three off days, the Yankees should only need a fifth starter three times in September. Even better, two of those games (Septembers 1st and 26th) are against Tampa Bay, a weak team if ever there was one. The other comes on the 16th, the final game against Boston, which may end up being a painful affair, but its still much better than it could have been.

The schedule's also on our side in the hunt for the wild card. Despite losing the last two series, the Yankees remain only two games behind Seattle for the wild card, and have a much easier schedule from here on out. Other than the six games against Boston and the three against Seattle, the Yankees only play two kinds of teams from here on out; mediocre and bad. Seattle, meanwhile, has seventeen games against contenders, and finish out the season playing a brutal 24 games in 24 days, with only one day off. Right now, I can't help but think that despite the standings, the Yankees have to be the favorites in this race.

A lack of options

I wrote last night that I'd take a look at who might fill in for Roger Clemens on Tuesday as he serves out his suspension. It turns out that there really is only one option for the Yankees; Jeff Karstens. Ideally they could call up Ian Kennedy, but he's not on the 40 man roster. As for guys who are on the 40 man, Tyler Clippard and Chase Wright have both needed to go back down to Double A, while Matt DeSalvo and Kei Igawa will have pitched too recently to be ready for Tuesday. Considering how Karstens has pitched lately, I'm hoping for rain.

On the subject of Igawa, it looks like he may not be a part of the Yankees by the time Tuesday comes along anyway. The Padres put in a waiver claim last night, and the Yankees now have until Tuesday (two business days after the Padres made the claim) to either work out a trade or take Igawa off waivers. I, for one, don't really see the Padres willing to trade away anyone worth giving up on Igawa. He is, after all, still a lefty with good stuff that comes at an affordable price. Of course my read on the situation may be wrong, and if Cashman can somehow get his hands on a good reliever, I'm all for it.