Sneaking Up

I know I said I was going to go over the playoff roster options, but that voice in my head won't let me write about anything but the division title. For weeks I've been saying that even if the Yankees stayed hot, they wouldn't have a chance at the division unless Boston stumbled. Well, Boston most definitely stumbled, losing three games against Toronto after having lost the series against the Yankees over the weekend. With the title suddenly in reach, we have to ask two questions: How hard should the team try to win the division, and what are their chances?

On the surface, "How hard should the Yankees try to win?" seems like a silly question. Winning is their goal in every game. However, you have to look at the bigger picture and ask what their overall goal is. Is it to win the division, or is it to win the World Series? It may seem like semantics, but its actually an essential question for determining the team's strategy for the rest of the season. If you want to win the division, that means you should be sending your best players out there. However, since the Yankees already have a sizable lead in the Wild Card race, if they want to win the World Series, they should be gearing up for the playoffs. This means using backups while your best players get some rest. I'm not just talking about the ones with nagging injuries, like Giambi, Matsui and Damon. Everybody on the team could use a day off. Sure, taking the division from the Red Sox would be sweet, but I don't think anyone on the Yankees wants it more than they want to win the World Series, and Joe Torre needs to plan accordingly.

Of course, there's no reason that the Yankees' can't win the division while getting themselves ready for the playoffs. Its not like they'll stop trying to win games just because the regulars are resting. So, let's take a look at what their chances are by looking at their schedule and Boston's. The Yankees have nine games left, three against Toronto at home, then three in Tampa and three in Baltimore. Meanwhile the Red Sox have eight games, two in Tampa, two at home against Oakland, and a final four against Minnesota. The Yankees definitely have the advantage in strength of schedule, playing more games against teams that are either bad (Tampa Bay) or bad and completely falling apart (Baltimore). That said, Oakland and Minnesota, while not bad teams, are pretty mediocre and the Red Sox do have the home field advantage. So, the story's the same as it ever was. The Yankees need to stay hot, and Boston needs to stumble just a little bit. Its going to be an interesting week.

I'll be in the right field bleachers Sunday afternoon, if anyone wants to say hi. You can look for me in section 39, row H.

The return of the Moose

One month ago Mike Mussina was falling apart, and people (myself included) were at a loss for what the solution might be. By pulling him from the rotation, though, it seems the Yankees have stumbled upon the answer; Moose just needed some rest. In retrospect, its actually kind of obvious that a 38 year old man might benefit from some time off.

Anyway, where his first start after rejoining the rotation was merely good, last night's was excellent. His fastball was up to a respectable 90mph with good life, and his curve had some excellent snap to it. Like his pitches, Moose seemed to have some extra life in him, making five plays in the field, including a great reaction play on a line drive at his head. Granted, neither the Orioles or the Blue Jays will ever be mistaken for Murderer's Row, so we should temper our excitement. That said, as long as he pitches well in his next start, I think he's locked up his spot in the postseason rotation.

That, of course, assumes that the Yankees are going to need a postseason rotation, and things are looking good on that front. Both Detroit and Boston have lost their last two games, putting the Yankees four and a half games up on the wild card and two and a half back for the division title. Even better, the magic number has shrunk to seven with only eleven games remaining. All the Yankees have to do now is not collapse and they're playoff bound. So, I don't think it's premature to start talking about the playoff roster, which I'll be doing on the off day tomorrow.

Makin' Me Sweat

Never let it be said that I'm not man enough to admit when I'm wrong, even when no one would know. I didn't get around to writing it before the game, but I didn't think Roger Clemens should have started tonight's game. I simply did not believe that his elbow could stand up to the Red Sox offense. Granted, Clemens said he could pitch, but I'm pretty sure he'd say the same thing if he were run over by the bus. He's just that kind of Texas son of a gun. The Rocket, however, was pretty sharp, pitching an efficient six innings, allowing only one unearned run, while striking out four and allowing only six men to get on base. While he had only thrown 87 pitches at that point, Joe Torre wisely decided that he didn't want to push Clemens' elbow to hard and turned things over to the Joba Chamberlain.

Unfortunately, Curt Schilling was just as sharp, if not more so. He only needed 69 pitches to get through seven innings, giving up only one run off a solo homerun by Robinson Cano in the 5th. Considering that Chamberlain was available for two innings, and Mariano Rivera was pretty well rested too, it seemed like we might be in for a long night, waiting for someone to scratch out a run against these dominating pitchers. Derek Jeter, perhaps having plans for the rest of the night, had other ideas.

After Melky Cabrera struck out to start the eighth inning, Doug Mientkiewicz managed to get on with a single. It was then that Joe Torre made a gutsy, brilliant call. Rather than have Jose Molina try to sacrifice Mientkiewicz into scoring position, Torre sent in Jason Giambi to pitch hit. What made this decision so surprising was that the only catcher who could replace Molina, Jorge Posada. For those who don't know, when you have a DH take over for a player in the field, the pitcher has to take over for that player at the plate. Torre, however, saw his chance to get a run and took it, deciding to worry about the pitcher's at bat when it came.

The gamble worked out beautifully, as Giambi singled and Damon grounded into what would have been the third out had Torre used Molina to sacrifice. Since Torre didn't, though, the Captain had the opportunity to come through in the clutch, and he did so in style, knocking a home run over the Green Monster to put the Yankees ahead 4-1. That would be all the offense the Yankees' needed, though the bullpen would make it close.

In the bottom of the 8th, Chamberlain gave up the first earned run of his short career when Mike Lowell took him deep for a solo home run. The 21 year old remained poised, as he came right back against J.D. Drew. Joba the Hutt struck him out with a breaking ball that Drew watched go by like he was frozen in carbonite.

The real nailbiting came in the botton ninth, which Mariano Rivera started by walking Jason Varitek. A Julio Lugo double would score him, and a hit batter followed by another walk would load the bases with two outs for David Ortiz. It's funny how Yankees/Red Sox games always seem to come down to big moments like these, where the game is on the line and each team has exactly who they want on the mound and at the plate. This time the moment was Mo's, as he got Ortiz to Big Papi out to shortstop with the classic cutter inside. The perfect ending to a game that was everything this rivalry is supposed to be.

Even though the Yanks won the series, without the sweep they're too far back to have a realistic shot at the pennant. However, by winning five of their last six against Boston, they've proven that they're more than ready to meet them in October. As far as getting to October, they remain two and a half games ahead of Detroit for the Wild Card, and their magic number drops to 10.

Wow

I'm a little too drained to write anything in depth about tonight's incredible, improbable win , but there is something I must share. I know that the Yankees are still four and a half games behind the Red Sox. I know that they have to win the next two games to have a chance at the pennant. I know that even then, their chances are slim. I know all these things, yet I can't help hearing this voice in my head; this voice that says, in a thick Boston accent, "Bucky freakin' Dent."

The State That I Am In

Bonus points for anyone who gets the reference from the title.

An off day is a good time to step back and take a look at the big picture of where the Yankees are. The team's record currently stands at 71-56, good enough for 2nd place in both the AL East and the AL Wild Card races. Lets take a look at what it'll take to make it to first.

The Red Sox are 5 games up on the Yankees in the pennant race at 76-51. At that pace they'll end the season with 97 wins. To match that, the Yankees would have to win 26 of their remaining 35, a ludicrous .743 pace. The Yankees have been the best team in the majors since the All-Star break, and even then they've been playing at a .683 clip, and if they keep it up through the end of the season, they'll be at 95 wins. Simply put, the Yankees aren't going to win the pennant without some help from the Red Sox. The teams face off against each other six more times this season, and if the Yankees don't win at least four of those games, they can forget about the pennant.

Of course if they can't overtake the Red Sox, there's still the far more attainable Wild Card berth. Seattle, at 71-53 is only a game and a half ahead of the Yankees, and are on a pace to win 93 games. To match that, the Yankees would have to go 22-13.

As fate would have it, the Yankees are scheduled to play 22 games against losing teams and 13 games against winning teams (actually, to be completely accurate, Toronto is sitting at .500, but its close enough). Thus, the path to the playoffs is pretty clear. If they can beat up on the bad teams, even .500 ball against the good ones ought to be enough. Its not a bad spot to be in.