The 2008 Replacement Level Yankees

In Sabermetrics, there's a concept called the Replacement Level. It's a way to look at a player's value to a team by comparing him to the player who would replace him if he wasn't there. Usually one would use a hypothetical replacement based on the kind of talent that's freely available. However, when you're looking at off-season moves for one team, you can move from the hypothetical to the real. So, I present to you the 2008 Replacement Level Yankees:

Position	Player	Salary
C	Omir Santos	$0.41
1b	Shelley Duncan	$0.41
2b	Robinson Cano	$32
3b	Wilson Betemit	$12
SS	Derek Jeter	$20
RF	Melky Cabrera	$0.41
CF	Johnny Damon	$13
LF	Hideki Matsui	$13
DH	Jason Giambi	$21
BN	Andy Philips	$0.41
BN	Alberto Gonzalez	$0.41
BN	Bronson Sardinha	$0.41
BN	Juan Miranda	$0.41
SP	Chien-Ming Wang	$32
SP	Mike Mussina	$11
SP	Phil Hughes	$0.41
SP	Joba Chamberlain	$0.41
SP	Ian Kennedy	$0.41
RP	Kyle Farnsworth	$5.5
RP	Kei Igawa	$4
RP	Chris Britton	$0.41
RP	Jose Veras	$0.41
RP	Ross Ohlendorf	$0.41
RP	Darrel Rasner	$0.41
RP	Jeff Karstens	$0.41

This is the team that the Yankees would field if they made absolutely no moves before opening day based, with one exception, on their 40 man roster. The exception is Omir Santos, who I put on the team because the Yankees have no catchers on their 40 man roster. Santos was the catcher for the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Yankees, so I went with him. You could make an argument for their other catcher Raul Chavez, and you can argue with my bullpen choices considering how many pitchers are on the 40 man roster, but those are little details that miss the point of this exercise.

Obviously, I don't think this is the lineup that will take the field come spring training, let alone opening day. It's just a tool to help look at the team's needs, and to evaluate what they do to fill them. For example, it lets us see all the ramifications of the decision to exercise Bobby Abreu's option. Having Abreu on the team creates the same "problem," as last season; too many good players for too few positions. You can move Giambi to first and use Matsui to DH, but that's a huge defensive downgrade at first and Giambi is almost guaranteed to be injured in the process. You could bench Melky Cabrera and move Damon to center field, which would only be a small defensive downgrade, but you might overtax Damon's problematic back and legs. No matter how you slice it, the overall effect of this move is a small upgrade for a lot of money.

Of course, the Yankees have enough money to be able to afford these kind of moves, but I think there's a trade they can make that can make this move much better. All they need to do is make a trade with Rawlings for a couple of first baseman's gloves for Damon and Matsui. Ideally, the Yankees would just have to give them Carl Pavano, but cash would be fine. Both Damon and Matsui are athletes with good fundamental baseball skills, and it's reasonable to think that they could be better fielders than Jason Giambi by the end of spring training. It is, after all, a pretty low bar to clear. Additionally, taking time off from the outfield would help them avoid aggravating their chronic injuries. In other words, there'd be decent defense, better hitting and fewer injuries. That's a move worth $14 million³.

¹Estimated salary based on Major League minimum.
²These players are arbitration eligible, so I've just made educated guesses as to what their salary will end up being.
³The option was worth $16 million, but declining it would have required a $2 million buyout, so it effectively cost them $14 million to exercise it.

Live Blogging 10/07

I'm back for another night of liveblogging. Here are today's lineups:

Yankees
1. Johnny Damon LF
2. Derek Jeter SS
3. Bobby Abreu RF
4. Alex Rodriguez 3B
5. Jorge Posada C
6. Jason Giambi 1B
7. Hideki Matsui DH
8. Robinson Cano 2B
9. Melky Cabrera CF
Pitcher: Roger Clemens

Indians
1. Grady Sizemore CF
2. Asdrubal Cabrera 2B
3. Travis Hafner DH
4. Victor Martinez C
5. Ryan Garko 1B
6. Jhonny Peralta SS
7. Kenny Lofton LF
8. Trot Nixon RF
9. Casey Blake 3B
Pitcher: Jake Westbrook

The big changes from the last couple of games are Giambi, who takes Doug Mientkiewicz's spot at first, and Nixon, who is the Indian's third right fielder in as many games. They're both pretty obvious moves. Nixon is a left hander with good numbers against Roger Clemens, and Giambi will hopefully provide some spark to an offense that's been pretty well shut down thus far in the series. The Yankees may get more of a spark from Westbrook, who has not done well against them. He gave up four runs over seven innings in his last start against the Bombers, and was pounded for eight runs over one and two thirds innings the last time he pitched in Yankee Stadium back in April.

Of course the big pregame news is George Steinbrenner letting the world know that Joe Torre's job may depend on the outcome of this series. It'd be ironic to me if Torre lost his job after this season, since I've been impressed by his performance in bringing the team back to the playoffs. Of course, even if I didn't feel that way, I'd still think that he deserves better, but that's the Steinbrenner Way, and Torre should be commended for showing, once again, amazing professionalism and class.

Update 6:38PM: Anyone looking for the game on TBS, switch over to TNT. They're showing the game there until the Boston-Anaheim game is over.

Update 6:41PM: I'm sure some of you are thinking it, but I really doubt Doug Mientkiewicz could have made that play. Even if he had been able to catch Jeter's errant throw, it would've been extremely difficult to tag Cabrera.

Update 6:53PM: A tough first inning for Clemens, but he seemed to get better as the inning wore on. I'm hoping he's just shaking off the rust that comes with not having pitched for three weeks.

Update 7:06PM: Ouch. Looks like Eric Wedge made the right call by putting Nixon in. That ball was hit so hard that it almost didn't have time to elevate over the fence.

Update 7:14PM: The Yankees' are going to need to get to Jake Westbrook soon, because I don't think that Clemens is going to settle in. It might be time to get Mike Mussina warming up.

Update 7:18PM: Excellent at bat for A-Rod. He seems to have gotten comfortable with the fact that the Indian pitchers are afraid of him and aren't going to throw him much in the strike zone. So, he watched some balls go by, pounced on a mistake and didn't try to do too much with it.

Update 7:32PM: It's certainly got to be frustrating for the Rocket to be pulled in favor of a kid that hadn't even been born when he made his major league debut. However, I'm glad that Torre didn't let that factor into his decision making. Now we've got to hope that Hughes is in command of all his pitches, because it looks like he's going to need it.

Update 7:42PM: I think Hughes needs to mix in his other pitches a little more. He threw 13 pitches, 10 of those were fastballs. The rest were three beautiful curveballs, which I'd like to see more of, as well as the slider and change. Still, he appears to have good command on the fastball, and its up to 93mph, so I think we'll see some solid innings out of him.

Update 7:47PM: Kudos to Matsui for legging out that infield hit with that gimpy hamstring. You could definitely see he was in pain as he ran down the line.

Update 7:52PM: Who would've thought that Matsui would be making contributions with his legs. Great baserunning on that play, especially with his slide into third. That gutsy play not only puts him ninety feet from home, but keeps Melky from being out at first. That could well be a turning point in this game.

Update 8:05PM: Hughes has got to be feeling good about his curveball, because he shook off Posada twice in order to throw it. He's definitely got good reason for it, as its got some great break, and he's been spot on with his command. Plus, there's a huge speed differential there, as , at 70mph, it's more than 20mph slower than the fastball. And there's that slider coming in at 81mph. The kid's looking really good out there.

Update 8:40PM: It was only a matter of time before the Yankees broke through against Westbrook. Beyond the runs, Damon's home run is great since it eliminates the possibility of Jeter, who has been the rally killer in this game, grounding into another double play.

Update 8:48PM: Joba's warming up. With nary a bug in sight, He and Mo ought to be able to lock this down if Hughes can get through this inning unscathed.

Update 8:59PM: It's surprising to see Westbrook back out on the mound. Not that I'm complaining.

Update 9:06PM: I can't say I really see the point of that bunt. Considering who's coming to the plate, I think sacrificing a chance to bust this game open is a mistake.

Update 9:10PM: Well, it looks like they didn't need any more chances to bust the game open anyway. Big hit by Cano, and a bigger error by Nixon.

Update 9:14PM: Now the question is what do you do about the bullpen. One of the Joba rules is that once he starts warming up, he has to come into a game. However, with such a huge lead do you only use him for one inning so that he's available tomorrow? Do you use Mo, or do you trust the end of a must win game to a lesser pitcher? I say hand the ball off to Ohlendorf, Vizcaino or Veras. Five runs is a big enough lead to start thinking about tomorrow.

Update 9:21PM: That strikeout is exactly why Joba's stay in the bullpen is temporary. He just struck out Cabrera on three exceptional pitches. The fastball and slider we've seen plenty of, but that curve hasn't been used much as a reliever, and it's fantastic. Anyone with that deep an arsenal needs to be in the rotation.

Update 9:30PM: Tonight's public address announcer, Jim Hall, sounds so much like Bob Sheppard that it's creeping me out.

Update 9:40PM: I'm having a hard time figuring out who is annoying me more, Dane Cook in these "There's Only One October," commercials, or this Frank guy and the endless promos for his show.

Update 9:52PM: I think the bullpen phone is broken again. Joe Torre is signaling Robinson Cano to check if Jose Veras is ready. This happened a few weeks ago, and you'd think that after the first time someone would think to bring a cellphone out there.

Update 10:10PM: Man, I really hate to see Mo here. I'm not knocking Torre's decision to use him, mind you, because I think it's a good call. It's just annoying that there's no one else in the pen you can really trust.

Update 10:15PM: And Mo closes it out against the top of the Indians' lineup looking like he was barely trying. I won't be able to live blog tomorrow's game, but I'll try and keep on top of the pregame stories, especially who the Yankees' will be sending to the mound. My vote is for Chien-Ming Wang, whose sinker ought to be better on short rest than long rest.