The First Trip

For seven innings yesterday it seemed like I had chosen a terrible day to make my first trip to Yankee Stadium. The day was wet and cold, with rain coming in and out all day, and the Yankees were sloppy. C.C. Sabathia struggled to find his control, and wasn't helped very much by his teammates. While they were only charged with one official error, when Johnny Damon dropped a routine fly ball in the 3rd inning, but there were several more ugly plays that probably should have been counted as errors. Most notable, I think, was Derek Jeter throwing the ball home to no one in particular in the 6th and allowing Mark Ellis to take an extra base.

Then came the 7th inning. Joe Girardi, as is his habit, stuck with his starter for just a bit too long, and it seemed like we were about to face the injury of a Yankee loss to go with the insult of the weather. However, the rain finally stopped, and the bullpen which has been so volatile this year came in and locked the game down. With the score now tied, it was like a whole new game, and the next seven innings were as tight as the first seven had been sloppy.

The obvious hero of the game was Melky Cabrera who followed up a monster home run in the second inning with a game-winning two run shot in the fourteenth. However, as good as those two homers were, Melky epitomized the bipolar nature of this game. In his other five trips to the plate, he managed to strike out three times, and looked completely helpless each time. It's hard to know what to make of him at this point, but for now I'll take it.

Anyway, I think I'm going to hold off on giving my thoughts on the stadium itself. With all of the rain, it was hard to get an idea of what a typical trip to the ballpark might be like. I'm planning on going back next week when the Angels come to town, so I'll try to put something together then.

Opening Day Live Blog 2.0

It seems to be a pretty nice spring evening in the Bronx, so we should finally have some baseball this evening. The lineups remain the same as they were yesterday:

Yankees
1. Johnny Damon - LF
2. Derek Jeter - SS
3. Bobby Abreu - RF
4. Alex Rodriguez - 3B
5. Jason Giambi - 1B
6. Robinson Cano - 2B
7. Jorge Posada - C
8. Hideki Matsui - DH
9. Melky Cabrera - CF
Pitcher: Chien-Ming Wang

Blue Jays
1. David Eckstein - SS
2. Shannon Stewart - LF
3. Alexis Rios - RF
4. Vernon Wells - CF
5. Frank Thomas - DH
6. Lyle Overbay - 1B
7. Aaron Hill - 2B
8. Marco Scutaro - 3B
9. Greg Zaun - C
Pitcher: Roy Halladay

Update 7:00PM: I wonder if the rainout meant that the pregame performances were changed, because it just doesn't seem right for "Oh Canada" to be played without a singer. Though I suppose it's better than that badly mangled version of "The Star Spangled Banner."

Update 7:15PM: By my count Chien-Ming Wang threw 14 pitches in the first inning and 13 of them were sinkers. Simple, but effective, as only Alexis Rios managed to get a solid hit.

Update 7:25PM: It looks like Halladay had the same idea as Wang, throwing 11 sinkers in his first 13 pitches. Unfortunately for him, A-Rod seemed ready for it, as he knocked that 13th pitch for a double and the season's first RBI.

Update 7:32PM: Of course the danger in using the sinker to induce grounders is that sometimes the ball finds the home. Alexis Rios remains the only Blue Jay to put solid wood on the ball, and yet Toronto has four hits and a run.

Update 7:43PM: One of the big improvements Robinson Cano made last season was becoming more selective at the plate, but he jumped on the first pitch he saw so quickly that YES barely managed to get the camera on it. Can't argue with the result, though.

Update 7:52PM: Now that he's making his way through the Jays' order for a second time, Wang's decided to bust out the slider. It works on David Eckstein, who swings right past it for the first strikeout of the night, but not so much on Alexis Rios. Rios seems to be able to see the slider coming, and lets them go by in order to work the first walk of the night.

Update 8:04PM: It's nice to see that Melky Cabrera hasn't fallen asleep waiting for a ball to be hit to the outfield, as he makes a nice play on Lyle Overbay's long fly ball, and a great one to rob Aaron Hill of an extra base hit. After being victimized by cheap hits in the first few innings, Wang's got to appreciate the fine work by his center fielder.

Update 8:10PM: Good lord this game is going by fast. I barely finished typing that last update before the Yankees' half of the inning ended. Wang and Halladay are both pitching extremely efficiently.

Update 8:14PM: Marco Scutaro certainly seems to have Wang's number on the basepaths. He's now stolen two bases with great jumps.

Update 8:32PM: Wang finally cracks, such as it is, as a leadoff walk makes its way home on a weak groundball. Meanwhile, Halladay is cruising. At least Jorge Posada made him work a little bit before striking out.

Update 8:37PM: Can anyone explain the commercial YES just showed for Fox Business' Happy Hour show? Am I supposed to be taking financial advice from drunk people?

Update 8:42PM: God bless that short porch. Melky's home run may have barely cleared the fence, but it counts just the same.

Update 8:51PM: As nice as it is to see Giambi make a nice play at first, snatching a hard line drive out of the air, it does make me worry that he'll end up playing there regularly. With his injury history, that's just asking for a trip to the DL.

Update 9:03PM: Apparently it's Jason Giambi Fundamentals night, as the big G keeps himself out of a double play with some smooth baserunning, keeping out of reach as Aaron Hill tries to tag him out.

Update 9:08PM: Giambi's baserunning pays off, as Hideki Matsui's ground out results in the go-ahead run rather than the end of the inning.

Update 9:11PM: That's it for Wang, as Joba Chamberlain takes the field. No midges in sight so far.

Update 9:23PM: Chamberlain wasn't quite as sharp as he was last season, but that's a pretty high bar. Even with a slightly slower fastball and a little less control, he still gets the Joba done (sorry, couldn't resist).

Update 9:30PM: I'd absolutely love it if Johnny Damon tried to steal home right now. With a lefty on the mound and the shift pulling the third baseman off the bag, it's certainly the perfect time.

Update 9:32PM: So much for that hope. Jason Giambi grounds out and Scott Downs escapes the inning unscathed after giving up a leadoff triple.

Update 9:40PM: On comes Mo, and out go the Blue Jays in order. I don't think you could ask for a better game to start the season.

The 2008 Replacement Level Yankees

In Sabermetrics, there's a concept called the Replacement Level. It's a way to look at a player's value to a team by comparing him to the player who would replace him if he wasn't there. Usually one would use a hypothetical replacement based on the kind of talent that's freely available. However, when you're looking at off-season moves for one team, you can move from the hypothetical to the real. So, I present to you the 2008 Replacement Level Yankees:

Position	Player	Salary
C	Omir Santos	$0.41
1b	Shelley Duncan	$0.41
2b	Robinson Cano	$32
3b	Wilson Betemit	$12
SS	Derek Jeter	$20
RF	Melky Cabrera	$0.41
CF	Johnny Damon	$13
LF	Hideki Matsui	$13
DH	Jason Giambi	$21
BN	Andy Philips	$0.41
BN	Alberto Gonzalez	$0.41
BN	Bronson Sardinha	$0.41
BN	Juan Miranda	$0.41
SP	Chien-Ming Wang	$32
SP	Mike Mussina	$11
SP	Phil Hughes	$0.41
SP	Joba Chamberlain	$0.41
SP	Ian Kennedy	$0.41
RP	Kyle Farnsworth	$5.5
RP	Kei Igawa	$4
RP	Chris Britton	$0.41
RP	Jose Veras	$0.41
RP	Ross Ohlendorf	$0.41
RP	Darrel Rasner	$0.41
RP	Jeff Karstens	$0.41

This is the team that the Yankees would field if they made absolutely no moves before opening day based, with one exception, on their 40 man roster. The exception is Omir Santos, who I put on the team because the Yankees have no catchers on their 40 man roster. Santos was the catcher for the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Yankees, so I went with him. You could make an argument for their other catcher Raul Chavez, and you can argue with my bullpen choices considering how many pitchers are on the 40 man roster, but those are little details that miss the point of this exercise.

Obviously, I don't think this is the lineup that will take the field come spring training, let alone opening day. It's just a tool to help look at the team's needs, and to evaluate what they do to fill them. For example, it lets us see all the ramifications of the decision to exercise Bobby Abreu's option. Having Abreu on the team creates the same "problem," as last season; too many good players for too few positions. You can move Giambi to first and use Matsui to DH, but that's a huge defensive downgrade at first and Giambi is almost guaranteed to be injured in the process. You could bench Melky Cabrera and move Damon to center field, which would only be a small defensive downgrade, but you might overtax Damon's problematic back and legs. No matter how you slice it, the overall effect of this move is a small upgrade for a lot of money.

Of course, the Yankees have enough money to be able to afford these kind of moves, but I think there's a trade they can make that can make this move much better. All they need to do is make a trade with Rawlings for a couple of first baseman's gloves for Damon and Matsui. Ideally, the Yankees would just have to give them Carl Pavano, but cash would be fine. Both Damon and Matsui are athletes with good fundamental baseball skills, and it's reasonable to think that they could be better fielders than Jason Giambi by the end of spring training. It is, after all, a pretty low bar to clear. Additionally, taking time off from the outfield would help them avoid aggravating their chronic injuries. In other words, there'd be decent defense, better hitting and fewer injuries. That's a move worth $14 million³.

¹Estimated salary based on Major League minimum.
²These players are arbitration eligible, so I've just made educated guesses as to what their salary will end up being.
³The option was worth $16 million, but declining it would have required a $2 million buyout, so it effectively cost them $14 million to exercise it.

Live Blogging 10/05

Here we go with my first attempt at blogging while watching the game. Today's lineups are, according to mlb.com, as follows:

Yankees
1. Johnny Damon, LF
2. Derek Jeter, SS
3. Bobby Abreu, RF
4. Alex Rodriguez, 3B
5. Hideki Matsui, DH
6. Jorge Posada, C
7. Robinson Cano 2B
8. Melky Cabrera CF
9. Doug Mientkiewicz 1B
Pitcher - Andy Pettitte

Indians
1. Grady Sizemore CF
2. Asdrubal Cabrera 2B
3. Travis Hafner DH
4. Victor Martinez C
5. Ryan Garko 1B
6. Jhonny Peralta SS
7. Kenny Lofton LF
8. Jason Michaels RF
9. Casey Blake 3B
Pitcher - Fausto Carmona

These lineups are almost identical to last night's. The only changes are that Joe Torre has flip flopped Matsui and Posada, and Eric Wedge has benched Franklin Gutierrez in favor of Michaels in right field. I'm a little surprised Wedge didn't bench Lofton against the lefty, but I guess his big game last night was too much to ignore.

Update 4:50PM: Bob Sheppard will not make it to the stadium for Sunday's game due to bronchitis. This will be the first time he has missed a playoff game in his 57 year long career. Thankfully, its not serious, and I think all Yankee fans wish him the best. Peter Abraham has the full story.

Update 5:21PM: That was some efficient work from tonight's starters. I have to say that I'm a little afraid of Fausto Carmona, who is looking a lot like Chien-Ming Wang on a good night.

Update 5:28PM: Now that's more like it. Hideki Matsui took a page out of the Indian's playbook from last night and works a walk by making Carmona earn that low strike. The fact is that his sinker nearly unhittable when its at the knees, so you may as well lay off it and hope he misses the zone.

Update 5:40PM: You know, I was really hoping that TBS' coverage would be an improvement over Fox's. I understand that baseball's pace lends itself to some meandering conversations (I did, after all, enjoy Phil Rizzuto's broadcasts), but I'd like to hear tangents about baseball, not Queen Latifah's wardrobe.

Update 5:44PM: Wow. Maybe it's because I watch Melky so much, but I saw that coming a mile away. I'm not really sure what Indians' third base coach Joel Skinner could have been thinking when he sent Peralta (assuming that Peralta didn't just go on his own). It's not like Cabrera hasn't been doing this for the past year and a half.

Update 5:52PM: That, my friends, is how you break out of a slump. That's also an appropriate way for Melky to celebrate the two month anniversary of his last home run, which came against Kansas City on August 5th.

Update 6:07PM: The story of the day before the game was "Andy Pettitte: Big Game Pitcher," but it's been the defenders behind him that've been coming through in the clutch so far. First Melky, and now Mientkiewicz have saved Pettitte's bacon so far by stopping runs that the Indians should have scored.

Update 6:27PM: I guess Pettitte's been reading this, because he went ahead and saved his own bacon this time. Actually, he did it twice, first getting a double play ball after allowing a leadoff single, and then stranding a runner on second after the double play opportunity was missed. Granted, he was the one who missed the opportunity by deflecting that double play ball away from Robinson Cano, but it's still an impressive performance.

Update 6:40PM: Another note about TBS' coverage. The graphic showing the size of the baserunner's lead at first is a good idea, but those red and green zones are just silly. I mean a safe lead for Jeter or A-Rod is completely different from one for Posada or Matsui. Just give us a distance and let the announcers give the context. That's pretty much what they're there for, after all.

Update 7:07PM: This is starting to get ridiculous. At this point I wouldn't be surprised if Pettitte were to allow a leadoff home run in the seventh and still not give up a run. Its almost enough to make you feel sorry for the Indians. Almost.

Update 7:55PM: Good lord. What was a cute little side story a half hour ago has turned serious, as this swarm of gnats seems to actually be bothering Joba Chamberlain's control. You really can't blame him either, as the cameras cut to a shot of his neck with a dozen of the little buggers perched on him and plenty more buzzing around. This is after the Yankees' trainer has doused him in repellant twice.

Update 7:58PM: This is crazy. Chalk that run up to the bugs, and there's a decent argument to be made at this point for the umpires to stop the game so they can spray the field.

Update 8:12PM: According the TBS on field reporter, the bugs that are causing these problems are "Canadian soldiers," which is another name for mayflies. Should the Indians win, they might well be the MVPs.

Update 8:23PM: A huge missed opportunity for A-Rod right here, and a huge opportunity given to the A-Rod haters. Before they get started, let me just say that that was a great battle against a pitcher who is having a huge night and who has stymied the entire Yankee lineup, including Captain Clutch himself.

Update 8:49PM: He's being overlooked by the TV crew, but big props to Doug Mientkiewicz for being able to keep that ball from heading to the outfield, which might've allowed Sizemore to make it to second.

Update 9:10PM: Here's when we should really start to worry. The Indians' bullpen is much deeper than the Yankees'. At least the Viz gets the bottom of the order this time around, but the top of the order will get their chance no matter what the Yankees do.

Update 9:32PM: And that's all she wrote. Goodnight folks.