In Sabermetrics, there's a concept called the Replacement Level. It's a way to look at a player's value to a team by comparing him to the player who would replace him if he wasn't there. Usually one would use a hypothetical replacement based on the kind of talent that's freely available. However, when you're looking at off-season moves for one team, you can move from the hypothetical to the real. So, I present to you the 2008 Replacement Level Yankees:
This is the team that the Yankees would field if they made absolutely no moves before opening day based, with one exception, on their 40 man roster. The exception is Omir Santos, who I put on the team because the Yankees have no catchers on their 40 man roster. Santos was the catcher for the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Yankees, so I went with him. You could make an argument for their other catcher Raul Chavez, and you can argue with my bullpen choices considering how many pitchers are on the 40 man roster, but those are little details that miss the point of this exercise.
Obviously, I don't think this is the lineup that will take the field come spring training, let alone opening day. It's just a tool to help look at the team's needs, and to evaluate what they do to fill them. For example, it lets us see all the ramifications of the decision to exercise Bobby Abreu's option. Having Abreu on the team creates the same "problem," as last season; too many good players for too few positions. You can move Giambi to first and use Matsui to DH, but that's a huge defensive downgrade at first and Giambi is almost guaranteed to be injured in the process. You could bench Melky Cabrera and move Damon to center field, which would only be a small defensive downgrade, but you might overtax Damon's problematic back and legs. No matter how you slice it, the overall effect of this move is a small upgrade for a lot of money.
Of course, the Yankees have enough money to be able to afford these kind of moves, but I think there's a trade they can make that can make this move much better. All they need to do is make a trade with Rawlings for a couple of first baseman's gloves for Damon and Matsui. Ideally, the Yankees would just have to give them Carl Pavano, but cash would be fine. Both Damon and Matsui are athletes with good fundamental baseball skills, and it's reasonable to think that they could be better fielders than Jason Giambi by the end of spring training. It is, after all, a pretty low bar to clear. Additionally, taking time off from the outfield would help them avoid aggravating their chronic injuries. In other words, there'd be decent defense, better hitting and fewer injuries. That's a move worth $14 million3.
1Estimated salary based on Major League minimum.
2These players are arbitration eligible, so I've just made educated guesses as to what their salary will end up being.
3The option was worth $16 million, but declining it would have required a $2 million buyout, so it effectively cost them $14 million to exercise it.
| Position | Player | Salary |
|---|---|---|
| C | Omir Santos | $0.41 |
| 1b | Shelley Duncan | $0.41 |
| 2b | Robinson Cano | $32 |
| 3b | Wilson Betemit | $12 |
| SS | Derek Jeter | $20 |
| RF | Melky Cabrera | $0.41 |
| CF | Johnny Damon | $13 |
| LF | Hideki Matsui | $13 |
| DH | Jason Giambi | $21 |
| BN | Andy Philips | $0.41 |
| BN | Alberto Gonzalez | $0.41 |
| BN | Bronson Sardinha | $0.41 |
| BN | Juan Miranda | $0.41 |
| SP | Chien-Ming Wang | $32 |
| SP | Mike Mussina | $11 |
| SP | Phil Hughes | $0.41 |
| SP | Joba Chamberlain | $0.41 |
| SP | Ian Kennedy | $0.41 |
| RP | Kyle Farnsworth | $5.5 |
| RP | Kei Igawa | $4 |
| RP | Chris Britton | $0.41 |
| RP | Jose Veras | $0.41 |
| RP | Ross Ohlendorf | $0.41 |
| RP | Darrel Rasner | $0.41 |
| RP | Jeff Karstens | $0.41 |
This is the team that the Yankees would field if they made absolutely no moves before opening day based, with one exception, on their 40 man roster. The exception is Omir Santos, who I put on the team because the Yankees have no catchers on their 40 man roster. Santos was the catcher for the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Yankees, so I went with him. You could make an argument for their other catcher Raul Chavez, and you can argue with my bullpen choices considering how many pitchers are on the 40 man roster, but those are little details that miss the point of this exercise.
Obviously, I don't think this is the lineup that will take the field come spring training, let alone opening day. It's just a tool to help look at the team's needs, and to evaluate what they do to fill them. For example, it lets us see all the ramifications of the decision to exercise Bobby Abreu's option. Having Abreu on the team creates the same "problem," as last season; too many good players for too few positions. You can move Giambi to first and use Matsui to DH, but that's a huge defensive downgrade at first and Giambi is almost guaranteed to be injured in the process. You could bench Melky Cabrera and move Damon to center field, which would only be a small defensive downgrade, but you might overtax Damon's problematic back and legs. No matter how you slice it, the overall effect of this move is a small upgrade for a lot of money.
Of course, the Yankees have enough money to be able to afford these kind of moves, but I think there's a trade they can make that can make this move much better. All they need to do is make a trade with Rawlings for a couple of first baseman's gloves for Damon and Matsui. Ideally, the Yankees would just have to give them Carl Pavano, but cash would be fine. Both Damon and Matsui are athletes with good fundamental baseball skills, and it's reasonable to think that they could be better fielders than Jason Giambi by the end of spring training. It is, after all, a pretty low bar to clear. Additionally, taking time off from the outfield would help them avoid aggravating their chronic injuries. In other words, there'd be decent defense, better hitting and fewer injuries. That's a move worth $14 million3.
1Estimated salary based on Major League minimum.
2These players are arbitration eligible, so I've just made educated guesses as to what their salary will end up being.
3The option was worth $16 million, but declining it would have required a $2 million buyout, so it effectively cost them $14 million to exercise it.
1 comment:
Your blog keeps getting better and better! Your older articles are not as good as newer ones you have a lot more creativity and originality now keep it up!
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