Changing Priorities

There was a lot to hate about last night's game. Like so many games this season, the Yankees managed to not just lose, but lose ugly, with mental mistakes and failures in big spots. With this loss, the Yankees fall back to a six game deficit in the wild-card race, and I'm about ready to declare their playoff hopes dead. In order to make the playoffs now, the Yankees would have to win their next two games, sweep Boston next month in Fenway, play one game better than the Red Sox in the other 26 games left, and erase the 3.5 game lead that the Twins have. It's a ridiculously tall order made even more ludicrous when you look at the teams' remaining schedules and see that the Yankees play only 15 of their final 31 games at home while the Red Sox play 21.

This is why I think it's time for the Yankees to shift their priorities from a futile attempt to make the playoffs this year to gearing up for next season. The Yankees are going to have a lot of decisions to make this offseason, and they can help themselves in making those decisions by using the next month to evaluate what they can expect from their prospects and young players. For example, this winter the team will need to decide whether to re-sign Bobby Abreu and continue to use an outfield of Nady-Damon-Abreu, or find a replacement. They can make this decision much easier by playing Brett Gardner regularly over the rest of the season, and letting themselves see if he's good enough to be the center fielder next year. If he is, then an outfield of Damon-Gardner-Nady becomes a very attractive option.

It's a bitter pill to swallow, but the sooner the Yankees can accept their defeat in this season, the sooner they can start to work towards victory in the next.

What a difference a day makes

On Tuesday night the Yankees played about as badly as a team possibly can. First, their defense let them down, with Derek Jeter and Johnny Damon commiting costly errors. Then their pitching collapsed, as Mike Mussina was unable to recover after Jeter's error and failed to make it out of the first inning. Finally, their offense was completely stymied by Daniel Cabrera and Lance Cormier, who only allowed seven Yankees to reach base in the game.

Twenty four hours later, they looked like a completely different team. Every starter managed to reach base at least once, and only two (Melky Cabrera and Bobby Abreu) failed to either score or knock in a run. Meanwhile, Darrell Rasner absolutely sparkled, holding the Orioles to just five hits, one walk, and no runs while striking out six over seven innings.

The only constant over the two games was Alex Rodriguez, back from injury in style, as he knocked three long home runs into nearly the same spot in right center field (though one was erroneously ruled a double). The past couple of days have shown that the Yankees aren't as bad as they've shown so far, but they're also not as good as they ought to be. If anyone can elevate them to that level, though, it's A-Rod.

Opening Day Live Blog 2.0

It seems to be a pretty nice spring evening in the Bronx, so we should finally have some baseball this evening. The lineups remain the same as they were yesterday:

Yankees
1. Johnny Damon - LF
2. Derek Jeter - SS
3. Bobby Abreu - RF
4. Alex Rodriguez - 3B
5. Jason Giambi - 1B
6. Robinson Cano - 2B
7. Jorge Posada - C
8. Hideki Matsui - DH
9. Melky Cabrera - CF
Pitcher: Chien-Ming Wang

Blue Jays
1. David Eckstein - SS
2. Shannon Stewart - LF
3. Alexis Rios - RF
4. Vernon Wells - CF
5. Frank Thomas - DH
6. Lyle Overbay - 1B
7. Aaron Hill - 2B
8. Marco Scutaro - 3B
9. Greg Zaun - C
Pitcher: Roy Halladay

Update 7:00PM: I wonder if the rainout meant that the pregame performances were changed, because it just doesn't seem right for "Oh Canada" to be played without a singer. Though I suppose it's better than that badly mangled version of "The Star Spangled Banner."

Update 7:15PM: By my count Chien-Ming Wang threw 14 pitches in the first inning and 13 of them were sinkers. Simple, but effective, as only Alexis Rios managed to get a solid hit.

Update 7:25PM: It looks like Halladay had the same idea as Wang, throwing 11 sinkers in his first 13 pitches. Unfortunately for him, A-Rod seemed ready for it, as he knocked that 13th pitch for a double and the season's first RBI.

Update 7:32PM: Of course the danger in using the sinker to induce grounders is that sometimes the ball finds the home. Alexis Rios remains the only Blue Jay to put solid wood on the ball, and yet Toronto has four hits and a run.

Update 7:43PM: One of the big improvements Robinson Cano made last season was becoming more selective at the plate, but he jumped on the first pitch he saw so quickly that YES barely managed to get the camera on it. Can't argue with the result, though.

Update 7:52PM: Now that he's making his way through the Jays' order for a second time, Wang's decided to bust out the slider. It works on David Eckstein, who swings right past it for the first strikeout of the night, but not so much on Alexis Rios. Rios seems to be able to see the slider coming, and lets them go by in order to work the first walk of the night.

Update 8:04PM: It's nice to see that Melky Cabrera hasn't fallen asleep waiting for a ball to be hit to the outfield, as he makes a nice play on Lyle Overbay's long fly ball, and a great one to rob Aaron Hill of an extra base hit. After being victimized by cheap hits in the first few innings, Wang's got to appreciate the fine work by his center fielder.

Update 8:10PM: Good lord this game is going by fast. I barely finished typing that last update before the Yankees' half of the inning ended. Wang and Halladay are both pitching extremely efficiently.

Update 8:14PM: Marco Scutaro certainly seems to have Wang's number on the basepaths. He's now stolen two bases with great jumps.

Update 8:32PM: Wang finally cracks, such as it is, as a leadoff walk makes its way home on a weak groundball. Meanwhile, Halladay is cruising. At least Jorge Posada made him work a little bit before striking out.

Update 8:37PM: Can anyone explain the commercial YES just showed for Fox Business' Happy Hour show? Am I supposed to be taking financial advice from drunk people?

Update 8:42PM: God bless that short porch. Melky's home run may have barely cleared the fence, but it counts just the same.

Update 8:51PM: As nice as it is to see Giambi make a nice play at first, snatching a hard line drive out of the air, it does make me worry that he'll end up playing there regularly. With his injury history, that's just asking for a trip to the DL.

Update 9:03PM: Apparently it's Jason Giambi Fundamentals night, as the big G keeps himself out of a double play with some smooth baserunning, keeping out of reach as Aaron Hill tries to tag him out.

Update 9:08PM: Giambi's baserunning pays off, as Hideki Matsui's ground out results in the go-ahead run rather than the end of the inning.

Update 9:11PM: That's it for Wang, as Joba Chamberlain takes the field. No midges in sight so far.

Update 9:23PM: Chamberlain wasn't quite as sharp as he was last season, but that's a pretty high bar. Even with a slightly slower fastball and a little less control, he still gets the Joba done (sorry, couldn't resist).

Update 9:30PM: I'd absolutely love it if Johnny Damon tried to steal home right now. With a lefty on the mound and the shift pulling the third baseman off the bag, it's certainly the perfect time.

Update 9:32PM: So much for that hope. Jason Giambi grounds out and Scott Downs escapes the inning unscathed after giving up a leadoff triple.

Update 9:40PM: On comes Mo, and out go the Blue Jays in order. I don't think you could ask for a better game to start the season.

The 2008 Replacement Level Yankees

In Sabermetrics, there's a concept called the Replacement Level. It's a way to look at a player's value to a team by comparing him to the player who would replace him if he wasn't there. Usually one would use a hypothetical replacement based on the kind of talent that's freely available. However, when you're looking at off-season moves for one team, you can move from the hypothetical to the real. So, I present to you the 2008 Replacement Level Yankees:

Position	Player	Salary
C	Omir Santos	$0.41
1b	Shelley Duncan	$0.41
2b	Robinson Cano	$32
3b	Wilson Betemit	$12
SS	Derek Jeter	$20
RF	Melky Cabrera	$0.41
CF	Johnny Damon	$13
LF	Hideki Matsui	$13
DH	Jason Giambi	$21
BN	Andy Philips	$0.41
BN	Alberto Gonzalez	$0.41
BN	Bronson Sardinha	$0.41
BN	Juan Miranda	$0.41
SP	Chien-Ming Wang	$32
SP	Mike Mussina	$11
SP	Phil Hughes	$0.41
SP	Joba Chamberlain	$0.41
SP	Ian Kennedy	$0.41
RP	Kyle Farnsworth	$5.5
RP	Kei Igawa	$4
RP	Chris Britton	$0.41
RP	Jose Veras	$0.41
RP	Ross Ohlendorf	$0.41
RP	Darrel Rasner	$0.41
RP	Jeff Karstens	$0.41

This is the team that the Yankees would field if they made absolutely no moves before opening day based, with one exception, on their 40 man roster. The exception is Omir Santos, who I put on the team because the Yankees have no catchers on their 40 man roster. Santos was the catcher for the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Yankees, so I went with him. You could make an argument for their other catcher Raul Chavez, and you can argue with my bullpen choices considering how many pitchers are on the 40 man roster, but those are little details that miss the point of this exercise.

Obviously, I don't think this is the lineup that will take the field come spring training, let alone opening day. It's just a tool to help look at the team's needs, and to evaluate what they do to fill them. For example, it lets us see all the ramifications of the decision to exercise Bobby Abreu's option. Having Abreu on the team creates the same "problem," as last season; too many good players for too few positions. You can move Giambi to first and use Matsui to DH, but that's a huge defensive downgrade at first and Giambi is almost guaranteed to be injured in the process. You could bench Melky Cabrera and move Damon to center field, which would only be a small defensive downgrade, but you might overtax Damon's problematic back and legs. No matter how you slice it, the overall effect of this move is a small upgrade for a lot of money.

Of course, the Yankees have enough money to be able to afford these kind of moves, but I think there's a trade they can make that can make this move much better. All they need to do is make a trade with Rawlings for a couple of first baseman's gloves for Damon and Matsui. Ideally, the Yankees would just have to give them Carl Pavano, but cash would be fine. Both Damon and Matsui are athletes with good fundamental baseball skills, and it's reasonable to think that they could be better fielders than Jason Giambi by the end of spring training. It is, after all, a pretty low bar to clear. Additionally, taking time off from the outfield would help them avoid aggravating their chronic injuries. In other words, there'd be decent defense, better hitting and fewer injuries. That's a move worth $14 million³.

¹Estimated salary based on Major League minimum.
²These players are arbitration eligible, so I've just made educated guesses as to what their salary will end up being.
³The option was worth $16 million, but declining it would have required a $2 million buyout, so it effectively cost them $14 million to exercise it.