The final countdown

The word is that the Yankees will announce their new manager either today or tomorrow. Right now the short list seems to consist of Don Mattingly, Joe Girardi and Tony Pena. I wrote about Mattingly and Girardi before, but Pena's name came up later, so I'll share my thoughts about him now.

Pena's resume is very similar to Girardi's. They're both former catchers who had very successful rookie seasons as a major league manager, leading mediocre teams with limited payrolls to surprisingly strong seasons. They then followed that rookie season by getting fired in the next one. Unlike Girardi, however, Pena was not fired because of a conflict with ownership. Instead, he lost his job over the trivial matter of losing 104 games. I'm not sure what that says about his managerial skills. On one hand the Royals were a pretty bad team, and you have to give him a lot of credit for bringing the team their first winning season since 1994, a feat they have yet to replicate. On the other hand, 104 losses is one of the worst totals in baseball history, and no matter how bad his players were, he has to take some of the blame.

So how can we make any kind of guess as to his managerial skills? I decided to go back to his experiences as the manager of the Aguilas Cibaenas in the Dominican Winter League. in three seasons he led the team to two league championships and a Carribean Series title. Of course managing a great team in Santiago de los Caballeros is very different from doing it in New York, but it's all we have to go on.

Similarly, we don't know much about how he'd be able to handle the media or his players. Neither of his previous managerial positions required him to face an aggressive media or deal with star players and their egos. All we can say is that he's had two seasons to watch Joe Torre do those things better than anyone, and that he's known to be a terribly nice guy.

In the end, I see the three candidates as breaking down like this. All three of them are classy guys who conduct themselves with the kind of professionalism that you'd expect from anyone who worked under Joe Torre. Girardi and Pena both have had success as managers, while Mattingly has had no experience whatsoever. Mattingly, as a former Yankee star and captain, is the only one who has ever had the spotlight of New York upon him and he's dealt with it well. All three are fine candidates, but I'd go with Mattingly and his media experience. The Yankees' are depending heavily on their young pitching, and the next manager is going to have to protect them from the media and teach them about how to deal with New York. While I've no doubt that all three would be willing to throw themselves in front of the proverbial bus for these kids, Mattingly's probably the one whose best equipped to survive it.

Of course two weeks ago I said that Girardi would be the best choice. That has less to do with me being indecisive and more to do with just how good these candidates are. Considering how badly the Yankee brass handled the end of the Joe Torre era, I'm glad to see that they're in a situation where there is no bad choice for them to make.